The eight-month-old uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) flipped the majority of ANC strongholds in eThekwini and almost single-handedly annihilated the party as it surged to victory in KwaZulu-Natal in last Wednesday’s national and provincial elections.
A deep dive into the election results details how ANC supporters in eThekwini, the province’s most populous region, switched allegiance in these elections from being largely an ANC safe haven in 2019 to the MKP, led by former president Jacob Zuma.
Two maps by the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) as well as another published by the media showing voting patterns give a glimpse of the key areas that turned over to the MKP and ensured its victory.
The map also shows that the DA largely held on to voting districts it had won in the previous elections.
ANC strongholds like Hammarsdale, Inchanga and areas around Hazelmere Dam seem to have turned overwhelmingly to the MKP in the elections.
The MKP also upstaged the IFP, which was expected to do well, and the ANC which has governed the province since 2004.
The final results show that the MKP secured 45% of the voter support in the province, while the IFP and the ANC received 17% and 18% of the votes respectively.
KwaZulu-Natal will be ruled by a coalition government as no political party received enough votes to form a government on its own.
Looking at some of the Voting Districts, the maps show that voters switched to the MKP with almost similar voting percentages that the ANC achieved in those districts in the last election.
For instance, in the 2019 elections, the ANC secured victories in voting stations around Hazelmere Dam with 60% to 68% of the votes. In last week’s elections, the MKP secured between 51% and 68% of the votes in those same districts.
In the voting districts around Inchanga, the ANC secured between 79% and 87% of the votes in 2019, while the MKP won with between 68% and 78% of the votes in last week’s elections.
In the voting districts south of Durban close to Umbumbulu, the MKP secured between 48% and 70% of the votes and in the previous elections ANC obtained between 59% and 80% of the votes.
Political analyst Professor Bheki Mngomezulu said it was easy for the MKP to wrest control of the ANC stronghold in eThekwini.
“The ANC was weak, it had weakened itself. Previously the DA and the EFF had capitalised on this, but this time it was the MK Party that capitalised on this. The Zuma factor played its part, but the ANC had already weakened itself,” he said.
The ANC’s defeat in KwaZulu-Natal has stunned party members, leaders and political observers.
The ANC national leadership admitted that while they knew that the MKP would get support, they did not anticipate it would receive such significant support in KZN and other provinces.
Addressing the media on Sunday morning, ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula said they were caught off-guard by the election outcome.
“We have lost even some of our strongholds to the MK Party in KwaZulu-Natal. We knew the MK Party would have an impact, but not this impact,” he said.
Mbalula said the party leadership would chart the way forward on the formation of coalitions on Tuesday.
Political analysts said the ANC was already weak in the province, which made it easy for the MKP to seize victory.
The results mean that parties that have different ideologies will now have to engage in coalition discussions and find common ground to form a government.
The Mercury