Durban — The KwaZulu-Natal Department of Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs (Cogta) has advised of a Level 4 weather warning for severe thunderstorms in most parts of the province on Sunday evening.
Cogta spokesperson Siboniso Mngadi said that the department was warning the public regarding Level 4 severe thunderstorms expected in most parts of the province on Sunday evening, except the south and extreme north-east.
Mngadi said that according to the South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecast, areas that may be affected include Abaqulusi, Alfred Duma – Ladysmith, Big Five Hlabisa, Dannhauser, eDumbe, eMadlangeni, Endumeni, eThekwini, Impendle, Inkosi Langalibalele, KwaDukuza, Mandeni, Maphumulo, Mkhambathini, Mpofana – Giant’s Castle – Mooi River, Msinga, Mthonjaneni, Mtubatuba, Ndwedwe, Newcastle, Nkandla, Nongoma, Nquthu, Okhahlamba, Richmond, Msunduzi, and Ulundi Local Municipalities.
“The forecast predicts widespread showers and thundershowers over the province this evening, with significant amounts of rainfall accumulation in most areas, leading to the risk of flooding,” Mngadi said.
“This may result in flooding of roads, settlements, and low-lying areas, potentially causing bridge and road closures. Residents may expect disruptions to traffic flow due to major roads being flooded or blocked by fallen trees.”
Mngadi advised the public to avoid crossing swollen rivers. Exercise extreme caution when travelling, or consider postponing travel plans as roads may become impassable due to flooding, water-filled potholes, and potential sinkholes. In rural areas, residents living along riverbanks should be prepared to evacuate to higher ground if necessary, as riverbanks may flood.
“The department has activated disaster management teams in all affected municipalities, ensuring they remain on high alert during this period,” Mngadi said.
On Friday, the SAWS reported that widespread heavy rain was expected over the weekend and early next week.
It said that rain is predicted to occur over the eastern half of the country. The cause of the widespread rainy weather will be the combination of three distinct circulation features in the atmosphere over southern Africa.
“Firstly, a cut-off low is expected to develop, in the upper air of the atmosphere, over the central interior during the latter half of the weekend. Secondly, a surface trough is expected to begin intensifying, in sympathy with the deepening upper-air cut-off low. The combination of these two features is well known to have the potential to drive episodes of widespread, often heavy, rain over southern Africa. Importantly, in this particular case, there is a third significant factor which is expected to elevate the risk of heavy rainfall from this system. This factor is the expected introduction of a stream of tropically sourced moisture, drawn southwards over the central and eastern interior of South Africa, under the influence of the circulation associated with the surface trough and upper-air system respectively. Tropically sourced air is well known to be associated with rainfall of a potentially heavy, widespread nature,” the SAWS explained.
It said that on Sunday, weather conditions will begin to deteriorate significantly, as the cut-off low manifests itself over the northern parts of the Northern Cape, introducing marked instability into the atmosphere, to drive widespread showers and thundershowers. As tropical air begins to stream southward over Botswana and South Africa, conditions will become progressively cloudy to overcast. During the course of the day, rain will set in over numerous provinces, including North West, the Free State, Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Limpopo and to a lesser extent, KZN.
The SAWS said that as the rain produced by this system is expected to continue unabated into Monday, the ground is likely to become saturated, leading to widespread overland run-off into streams and rivers. Whilst this phenomenon will ultimately lead to increased dam levels, the risk of river flooding (and associated road closures and general traffic disruption) will remain particularly high. Disaster Management practitioners are also advised to maintain a high level of vigilance during this period, should river flooding continue to pose a safety and health risk to the public at large. Motorists and pedestrians are urged not to try to cross rivers or streams which are already flooded, under any circumstances.
Weather outlook for Tuesday and Wednesday:
— SA Weather Service (@SAWeatherServic) December 10, 2023
Tuesday:
Partly cloudy and warm, with isolated showers and thundershowers in the east & south but scattered along the east coast of the Eastern Cape.
Wednesday:
Partly cloudy and warm with isolated thundershowers over the east. #saws pic.twitter.com/o8JCZUT8yY
The SAWS also said that numeric weather prediction models suggested that the rainfall in association with this system will start clearing from the west, during the course of Tuesday, although areas of heavier rainfall may still linger over KZN, eSwatini and the lowveld regions of Mpumalanga and Limpopo. A surface high-pressure system is likely to sustain light rainfall over the aforementioned provinces on Wednesday, as cooler, moist maritime air is introduced to the eastern coastal regions. However, the upper air cut-off low will have moved off the country completely by this time.
Daily News