Durban — Despite DA premier candidate Chris Pappas’s rise to stardom in KwaZulu-Natal, political analysts are still tipping the IFP to perform well and possibly lead the coalition government in the province after next year’s general election.
Pappas is the uMngeni Local Municipality mayor and was recently appointed as the DA premier candidate for the province.
University of KwaZulu-Natal-based analyst Zakhele Ndlovu and Professor Bheki Mngomezulu, from Nelson Mandela Bay University, both poured cold water on Pappas’s popularity. Although the two agreed that Pappas’s would enhance the DA’s performance, they cast doubt on his chances to become provincial premier.
Ndlovu said: “I agree the two parties stand a good chance to co-govern the province after next year’s general election but I do not see the DA taking over the IFP in terms of votes collected. Chances are that the IFP could lead the coalition government next year if the ANC fails to win outright,” said Ndlovu.
He based his projections on the latest by-election results, as well as the death of IFP founder Inkosi Mangosuthu Buthelezi. Ndlovu said the IFP’s winning of by-elections consistently was a sign of growth trajectory which would be replicated next year.
He said that because of Buthelezi’s death, the party would cash in strongly on sympathy votes.
Weighing in on the issue, Mngomezulu agreed, saying he too was tipping the IFP to lead the coalition government should the ANC dip below 50%. He said despite Pappas’s sterling work as the mayor of uMngeni Local Municipality, that was not enough to surpass the IFP in the polls next year.
On whether the IFP should emulate the DA by announcing its premier candidate now, Mngomezulu said it was a dicey situation because it could either work in the party’s favour or backfire since people would start comparing the person with Pappas.
“It may happen that the appointed candidate was not the one expected by the majority within the party and that would backfire, so revealing the name is a dicey exercise,” said Mngomezulu.
He said the IFP's performance would also hinge on how it managed the fallout that may start emerging after Buthelezi’s departure. He said factions that may emerge and power struggles over who should be the premier candidate might dent the party’s chances of doing well.
Commenting on the analysis, the DA’s provincial chairperson, Dean Macpherson said politics was like a football game in which people could start discussing penalty shoot-outs before the 90-minute match had even been played. He asked whether the two analysts remembered that from 2014 to 2019 the DA was the second-biggest party and the official opposition in the legislature.
“We have agreed to campaign as independent parties and we will talk after the elections to see how one has fared. For now, we are focusing on winning the province, while the IFP is also focusing on its campaign,” said Macpherson.
Meanwhile, the IFP continued winning by-elections, snatching Ward 13 from the ANC in the Umhlathuze Local Municipality in Richards Bay on Wednesday.
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