Namibia’s ruling South West Africa People’s Organisation (Swapo), which has been in power since independence, fears the same fate as other liberation-era parties crushed in elections across the region when the country goes to the polls on Wednesday.
In the past six months, South Africa’s ANC lost its parliamentary majority, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) was ousted after almost six decades in power, and though the ruling Frelimo won elections in Mozambique, civil society and opposition groups have demonstrated for weeks claiming fraud and demanding change.
In Namibia, five candidates are running for the top job, including Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah of the ruling Swapo party which faces its tightest race since 1990.
With results expected as early as Saturday, all eyes are on whether the sparsely populated country rich in mineral resources and recently discovered offshore oil, will follow the trend and record a historic change of leadership.
NNN, as Nandi-Ndwaitwah is known, is a political veteran who has a high chance of becoming the country’s first female president. But her supporters are nervous as an estimated 1.5 million voters prepare to cast their ballots in presidential and parliamentary polls.
“There’s a lot of voter apathy ... But when people see what’s happened to the ANC, the BDP and Frelimo, they start to realise that change is possible,” said Johannesburg independent political analyst Marisa Lourenco.
“This could encourage voter turnout.” How young people will vote is a big unknown. Unemployment among 15- to 34-year-olds was estimated at 46%, according to the latest figures from 2018 – almost triple the national average.
“They accuse the government of not providing them meaningful employment opportunities, and the government happens to be Swapo since independence,” said Henning Melber, of the Nordic Africa Institute at the University of Uppsala.
Jonas Kambanza, a 38-year-old street photographer in the capital Windhoek who sells a picture for around 50 cents, is among those angry with the government.
“We have a lot of minerals, even petrol now, but only a minority benefits from it,” he said.
“We need change. And if the new people in charge do not do good, then we will change them again. It happens everywhere in the world, see America!
Why not us?” After more than three decades of Swapo rule following independence from South Africa, Namibia remains one of the most unequal countries in the world.
And for Tendai Mbanje, an election expert at the African Centre for Governance in Johannesburg, Swapo has also failed to deliver on its promise to ensure that black people own land.
Older voters like Wilhelm Titus, a retired 76-year-old, believe Namibians should “all have to go and vote” for those who fought for freedom, “not only in Namibia but the whole of Africa”.
But a new generation of Namibians has emerged, one that feels it owes less to the party that liberated the country, according to analysts.
“A decisive part of the electorate was born after independence,” said Melber. Known as the “born free”, “they don’t owe Swapo any loyalty”.
For the first time in years, a second round is therefore “a somewhat realistic option”, the analyst said.
Among 72-year-old NNN’s strongest opponents is Panduleni Itula, a 67-year-old lawyer and founder of the Independent Patriots for Change party.
A former Swapo member, Itula got 29.4% of votes in the last elections in 2019, losing to Hage Geingob who won with 56%.
But his performance was remarkable, considering Geingob got almost 87% five years earlier. The Swapo leader died in February this year.
Since then, “Swapo’s popularity has declined even more”, says analyst Lourenco.
“It’s a scary moment for Swapo. I don’t think that they’ve ever been as close as before to losing an election, parliamentary and presidential.”
Itula’s party also won local elections in 2020 in two key constituencies – Swakopmund and Walvis Bay – further demonstrating that an alternative was possible.
But in the capital, Windhoek, on Monday, the mood was festive rather than revolutionary, and only a few banners reminded passers-by of the upcoming vote. Still, Mbanje believes that if Swapo wins, it will be with “a very narrow margin”.
Cape Times