Dugan Brown
The 2024 general elections in South Africa are poised to be a watershed moment in the nation’s political history.
The ANC, which has dominated the political arena since the end of apartheid, is facing unprecedented challenges that could erode its electoral dominance.
The shift opens the door to the possibility of coalition governments, a prospect that brings hope for renewed political dynamics and fears of instability, given the troubled history of coalition governance in key metropolitan areas.
The ANC’s grip on power has been weakening over the past decade, plagued by allegations of corruption, internal factionalism, and failure to deliver on economic and social promises.
The 2021 local elections highlighted the decline, the ANC failing to secure a majority in several key municipalities, including Johannesburg, Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay.
Polls suggest the 2024 general elections may see the ANC falling below 50% nationally, necessitating coalition arrangements to form a government.
Coalition governments in South Africa have a chequered history. In Johannesburg, the coalition government led by the DA was marred by infighting and frequent changes in leadership, culminating in a lack of coherent policy direction and service delivery failures.
Tshwane experienced similar instability, with political wrangling and administrative paralysis.
Nelson Mandela Bay’s coalition was also fraught with conflict, leading to a revolving door of mayors and stalling of critical governance functions.
These experiences raise concerns about the viability of a national coalition government. South Africa’s proportional representation system makes coalition governance complex, often leading to fragile alliances and policy gridlocks. The inherent instability could exacerbate socio-economic challenges and undermine public confidence in democratic institutions.
One of the most speculated scenarios is a coalition between the ANC and the EFF. The EFF, led by Julius Malema, has grown in influence and represents a radical left-wing agenda, including land expropriation without compensation and nationalisation of key industries. An ANC-EFF coalition could be ideologically coherent on certain policy fronts but fraught with challenges.
Such a coalition might push for more aggressive economic reforms aimed at addressing inequality and poverty. However, the EFF’s radical approach and the ANC’s more cautious, centrist stance could lead to internal conflicts. Policy implementation might become inconsistent, leading to investor uncertainty and potential economic instability. Furthermore, the EFF’s confrontational style and past behaviour in Parliament suggest that maintaining a stable and co-operative governance environment could be difficult.
In response to the declining dominance of the ANC and the need for a new political framework, several opposition parties have formed the Multi-Party Charter for South Africa.
This alliance, primarily involving the DA, IFP, Freedom Front Plus and other smaller parties, aims to present a united front against the ANC and EFF.
The success of the Multi-Party Charter hinges on its ability to present a coherent, unified policy platform and to manage internal differences.
Historically, opposition coalitions in South Africa have struggled with unity and common purpose. The ideological diversity within the Charter, ranging from the centrist DA to the right-wing FF+, could pose significant challenges in policy formulation and governance.
The 2024 general elections are set to redefine South Africa’s political landscape. The erosion of ANC dominance signals the end of an era and the beginning of a potentially tumultuous period of coalition governance.
While coalitions offer a chance for diverse representation and renewed policy vigour, the instability experienced in municipal governments casts a long shadow over their potential success at the national level.
An ANC-EFF coalition might bring bold reforms but could struggle with internal coherence and stability.
The Multi-Party Charter represents a hopeful yet challenging endeavour to present a viable alternative to the ANC.
Ultimately, the future political stability and progress of South Africa will depend on the ability of political leaders to navigate these complexities, prioritise national interests over party politics, and foster a co-operative and inclusive governance environment.
* Brown is a BSocSc student at UCT
Cape Times