February’s figures for electricity generated and available for distribution showed that seasonally adjusted electricity generation dropped 2.5% in February month-on-month, which hints at a weaker economic environment ahead.
A recent print from Statistics South Africa indicated that this followed month-on-month changes of 0.4% in January 2025 and -1.6% in December 2024.
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Independent energy expert Chris Yelland noted that noted that the volume of electricity Eskom was making available to the grid had declined, even after taking seasonal adjustments into account to cater for different weather conditions. “Now that's not a good sign.”
However, Yelland pointed out that this does not necessarily mean that electricity consumption is declining, because end users could be generating their own power through other sources such as solar power or battery storage.
Despite this, the lower output generally demonstrates a weak economy and that there may be constraints to supply, such as during loadshedding, said Yelland. “The more load shedding there is, the less goes into the grid. So, that could have had an impact this last month, because we have had a few days where we've experienced load shedding,” he noted.
Following more than 300 days without loadshedding, there were recently three or so days when it was again implemented.
Yelland noted that, given that the use of electricity seemed to be declining, South Africa’s economic growth has also been hampered. The Bloomberg consensus for growth has fallen to 1.5% from 1.7%. Prior to the implementation of the Trump’s administration of tariffs, the South African Reserve Bank anticipated gross domestic growth of 1.9% compared with the 0.6% seen last year.
“But, just remember, there can be self-generation. So, even though it may indicate a slight decline, electricity consumption may not really have declined because of self-generation. The bottom line is electricity consumption is pretty damn flat,” said Yelland.
Yelland added that there were also other constraints related to economic growth, such as limitations in the logistics sector.
While Eskom was working to keep the lights on, which has produced results, power plants are becoming older and require additional maintenance, which becomes harder as plants age, said Yelland.
MK Member of Parliament, Adil Nchabeleng, said that the party has challenged the Minister of Electricity and Energy, Kgosientso Ramokgopa, to address the energy crisis by reopening the Komati Power Station.
Before its decommissioning following a 2019 decision by then Eskom CEO André de Ruyter, the Komati power plant supplied 1 000MW of power. At the time of its decommissioning in 2022, Eskom said it was only contributing 121MW to the grid and that it would be turned into a renewable energy site and a tender for this transition was issued late last year.
Yelland stated that “some plants are beyond the end of life, but they are keeping them going because of the shortage of power”. As a result, he said, there will be bouts of loadshedding now and again, yet these will be at a reduced intensity.
Yelland said South Africa needed to solve getting alternative energy solutions going as nuclear, even if a project kicked off now, would take 15 years to ramp up, while South Africa has no supplies of natural gas. He noted that Sasol has indicated it will be forced to stop supplying gas at the end of 2028 as it would need to reserve it for its own use, which presented a conundrum when it came to gas as a power source.
“Those are not solutions that are going to solve the problem in the short- to medium-term. And any new generation takes time,” said Yelland.
There is, however, hope Yelland believes. “I think if we do the right thing in South Africa, we make the right decisions, we are bold and take progressive decisions, we can get by. So, in the case of electricity, my view is that we are not necessarily in trouble, provided we do the right thing for a long time,” he said.
He added that the “the problem is to do the right thing in an environment where we are fiscally constrained and when government is not in the habit of making quick and decisive, bold decisions”.
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