The disaster at Jagersfontein mine tailings, in the Free State, is symptomatic of a much broader problem South Africa faces, which is one of poor leadership.
It is beyond being the canary in the cage that miners used in coal mines to detect the presence of carbon monoxide.
It goes even beyond the legend that has it that lightning or the juju bird does not strike at the same place twice.
History has shown that system failures are not single events, but come about through a cumulation of related and non-related factors.
When these converge on a weak platform, they become an unmitigated disaster. What is worse is when those in authority run for cover with several excuses.
They paralyse society and any form of social compact.
South Africa fails to act fast enough and turns a deaf ear to reported problems until you get a Jagersfontein-type scenario.
Today it is no longer uncommon in South Africa to normalise what was the impossible as the impossible mutates into the inevitable and gets normalised with a wink of shameful approval.
For example, on Monday I tried to report a blocked sewerage, with sewage flowing from a street manhole in front of my house. The call centre said they were off-line and I should call later. Later will be transferring the physical sewer to a virtual sewer at the call centre.
So, it was, “We are experiencing a high call volume, we will assist you as soon as an operator is available.”
And thus went on the monotone hours on end. The sewage turned into a river. Pedestrians got sprayed with the green goo as South African motorists pushed their vehicles through this sea of faecal slurry.
System failures begin on a small scale and then amplify.
And sometimes we have advance warning.
I have learnt through personal experience that the theories of the juju bird not revisiting clients does not hold water.
Lightning struck in November 2018 at my house - scorching the same 5mm wire in succession, 10 days apart. So, lightning does strike the same spot more than once. That legend is thus false.
Why did it strike the same point twice?
There was a live wire that the reckless roofers I engaged left unearthed.
On the second strike I ripped off all wires associated with that wiring and the juju bird has not struck again since.
I have uncovered conditions under which the bird revisits and I provided a solution to stop it from revisiting. Electrical wires are not only good conductors of lightning, but when left live and unearthed they attract lightning. I learnt a valuable lesson.
But in South Africa it appears we seldom learn from our mistakes.
The Jagersfontein disaster is not the first of its kind in the Free State. In fact, we have seen the equivalent of lightning striking in the same province twice, almost three decades apart.
In both instances negligence has been the source of the juju bird’s visit.
At the centre of the problem is the conduct of capital when it has captured the ruling elite and the plebiscite bear the brunt of torturous excuses in the face of lost lives and property.
Disasters don’t happen in isolation.
On February 22, 1994, when we were a whisker away from the first democratic elections, a different form of lightning, killed 17 people and scores of houses collapsed because of the force of the slurry.
This was what we called the Merriespruit tailings dam disaster. The wall of Merriespruit tailings collapsed and unleashed cubic metres of slurry that measured 1.2 million tons. The slurry smashed lives and property into the ground, leaving broken hearts. It came to a halt 2km later in the shell-shocked town of Merriespruit in the Free State.
The scientists say this preventable failure was a result of water mismanagement that caused 600 000m3 of tailings (1.2 million tons) to break free from its impoundment.
At the time there was much finger pointing in all directions and speculating as to who was at fault.
Then tragedy struck again on the morning of Sunday, September 12, 2022, almost three decades after the first tragedy and exactly a decade after Marikana.
The Jagersfontein mine tailings in the Free State burst its rickety walls smashing houses to the ground and leaving one person lifeless while four are still missing.
Here again the multiple talking heads are pointing fingers without anyone taking responsibility for that tragedy that by all counts was but one waiting to happen.
In another example, when we faced the Covid-19 disaster and had R200 billion of relief funds for business, talking heads - from the governor of the Reserve Bank, to the minister of finance, minister of small business and SA Banking Association - were pointing fingers when the question of why the ton of money was not accessed, was asked.
Whichever way you look, the juju bird has become South Africa’s companion.
It struck twice in the Free State. With wanton neglect from those who occupy positions of leadership, you can expect the inevitability of more strikes from this chameleon of doom as it unleashes venom in multiple guises.
Dr Pali Lehohla is the director of the Economic Modelling Academy, a Professor of Practice at the University of Johannesburg, a Research Associate at Oxford University, a board member of the Institute for Economic Justice at Wits and a distinguished Alumni of the University of Ghana. He is the former statistician-general of South Africa.
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