Electricity consumers should brace for intensified power cuts of up to Stage 10 load shedding this winter, as nearly half of Eskom’s generation capacity is offline due to breakdowns.
Eskom ramped up load shedding to Stage 6 indefinitely on Sunday, with breakdowns nearing the highest level at 19 333MW of generating capacity, while 4 524MW was out of service for planned maintenance.
The last time breakdowns were this high was at the height of severe power cuts in February, with 21 243MW, while 3 566MW was out for maintenance at the time.
Independent energy analyst Lungile Mashele yesterday said Eskom currently had about a 6 000MW deficit, and the power utility could supply only about 25 000MW against the electricity demand of about 31 000MW.
“I anticipate that during this week, we are going to see Stage 7 and Stage 8 load shedding which we have seen before, but obviously the utility will not communicate it as they typically do, and they will simply say we are load shedding at Stage 6 even though the number hours is much higher,” she said.
Mashele said Eskom was forecasting a demand of about 34 000MW in the winter months of June, July and August, which would raise the deficit to a 9 000MW shortfall.
“This will no doubt take us to Stage 9 and Stage 10 load shedding, which is what I’ve been warning about since the beginning of the year, that if nothing is done, we are going to be in a worse position.
“Now one of the things Eskom has to look at as an urgent intervention is their fleet and how they implement the maintenance that they have planned for.
“These are more operational issues that I would not like to opine on because they are deeply technical. But Eskom needs to communicate – and this is urgent – what their winter plan is going to be.
“The winter plan needs to be communicated by the Eskom CEO and the systems operator, and they need to re-forecast what the demand is going to be. They also need to elaborate on diesel supplies and look at what emergency measures they are going to implement,” Mashele said.
“And if I were them, I would also just mention that we must anticipate higher stages of load shedding so that when Stage 8 and Stage 10 comes, we are not caught unaware.”
This comes as the National Rationalisation Specifications (NRS) association, the body responsible for drafting the load-shedding protocols is finalising protocols dealing with Stage 9 load shedding and beyond.
The NRS has consulted extensively and estimates that they will submit the new schedule to the National Energy Regulator of SA (Nersa) shortly.
This is unprecedented terrain, as Stage 6 load shedding means eight to 10 hours of power cuts a day, while Stage 8 load shedding would see at least 12 hours a day without power in blocks of four hours.
A move beyond Stage 8 would herald not only load shedding, but electricity curtailment which would require large energy users to further reduce their power usage.
This heightened level of power cuts would have a disastrous impact on industry, negatively affecting jobs and the economy.
Load shedding and logistical bottlenecks have seriously throttled South Africa’s primary sectors of mining and manufacturing, resulting in subdued output since the final quarter of 2022.
Investec economist Lara Hodes said the industry’s production-levels were still going to be hampered by power cuts.
“Heightened rotational load shedding continues to weigh on the energy intensive manufacturing sector, with activity likely to have fallen by a further 6.2% year on year in March,” Hodes said.
“Business activity remained in contractionary territory, while the new sales orders index recorded its lowest reading since October, last year.”
Meanwhile, Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan said his department would be lodging an urgent appeal to set aside the high court judgment on load shedding.
The North Gauteng High Court in Pretoria, on Friday ordered Gordhan to “take all reasonable steps” within 60 days to ensure that public health establishments, state schools and police stations are exempted from load shedding.
Gordhan said his department has serious concerns about the implications of the court ruling on current efforts to stabilise the national grid and get the country out of load shedding.
“The department has studied the ruling and has determined through legal advice that the prudent step to take is to lodge an appeal to have the ruling set aside and allow for the ongoing efforts to end load shedding to proceed without putting undue risk on the country’s grid infrastructure,” Gordhan said.
“While the department respects the independence of the courts, in this case the department believes that the judgment would have unintended consequences, and undermine the very efforts to balance the protection of the rights that were ventilated in this case, with the need to stabilise and protect our grid infrastructure,” he said.
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